Michigan Renewable Energy Fair

Peak Oil the central focus of  the 2006 Michigan Energy Fair, the first event of its size in Michigan.  Workshops, presentations, and keynotes totaled nearly 70 events over the three day fair.  Highlights included talks by Daniel Chiras, Tim Hudson, and John Richter, all focusing on the need to address Peak Oil.  The fair was organized by the Great Lakes Renewable Energy Association.  It was held on June 16-18, 2006 at the Manistee County Fairgrounds in Onekama, Michigan.

This page is linked from the Energy Bulletin

Crude Awakening -- Peak Oil and The End of Cheap Energy

Part 1 - What it is, How and When it Will Happen by Tim Hudson

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"Peak Oil is the point where the rate of oil extraction begins to permanently decline...  We suddenly get a switch from an oil buyers market, to a sellers market, and there is a sudden increase in prices..."  Hudson describes the bloom of books, articles, films, and websites on Peak Oil.  "Some are predicting doom and gloom... Peak Oil will be like the 1970s oil crisis, but this time, it is here to stay."

"We think the Peak Oil point has three sides."  On one side is the energy, on the second side is the environment, and on the third side is the economics.  "Everybody positions themselves kind of in this three dimensional weighting, their value system, about what's important amongst all these things... Think of all three."

Hudson describes the relationship and links between money and the energy supply.  "We probably need to better understand the relationship between our financial system, our civilization itself that the financial system was constructed under, and cheap energy and this assumption that we must grow financially every year..."  He also goes into the relationship between energy, food, and global population.

Hudson emphasizes the need to scale up rapidly the use of renewables.  He points out that predictions for 50 more years of oil is based on a constant steady supply from here out, then a sudden drop to zero.  He explains how Hubbert made a predicted the peaking of oil in the USA.  He points out that the USA is like "Swiss cheese" with the number of wells that have been drilled, and despite all this effort, there is much less oil being produced than in 1970.

"We're richer than the greatest king ever was."  He talks about how the amount of energy the average American uses is like having 300 energy slaves all working on our behalf.

Looking at discoveries, peak discovery was back in the 1960's.  Predictions for Peak Oil range from now to 2012.  After peak, there will still be lots of oil, but it will be more expensive, and there will be less and less available.  This could culminate in a series of recessions and a very bumpy ride for everyone.

Part 2 - Impact and Transition by John Richter

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"We want our oil, we want our gas, we're gonna drive, and we'll pay whatever it takes, and, if we have to, we'll cut back somewhere else in our lives, to free up the money, to buy that gas, because... what choice do you have, in the short term?"

Richter explains the physical and economic constraints on oil flows, including the demand and supply sides.  He discusses the disappearance of excess capacity, increase in US and Chinese demand, lack of tankers, and limited personnel.  He points out how supply has failed to increase rapidly enough to hold price steady, marking the beginning of entering the top of the peak oil curve.

Richter tackles the various hopes for increasing supply.  Converting tar sands in Alberta and Venezuela into oil is extremely expensive, energy intensive, and environmental destructive.  Production will be unable to increase production as fast as the depletion rate of conventional oil.  Shale rock ("oil shale") requires more energy input than the energy extracted.  This requires the heating of the rock for several years before the oil can be extracted, at a very low rate.  Gas to Liquids are also extremely expensive.

"These are the illusions that people are clinging to... in the desperate hope that we can go on living the way we're living."

Converting biomass or plants to transportation fuel can not displace oil.  Ethanol currently contributes to 3% of US gasoline.  The goal is to double that in six years.  About twenty-five percent of the US agricultural land is used to grow corn.  If 100% of that land were used (with none remaining for food), then 20% of US gasoline could be supplied.  "We have to eat, too.  That's kind of important for some of us," says Richter.  Ethanol has a very poor net energy return, and has not been looked at closely enough to say for sure if it is a qualified winner or loser.  Sugar cane and suger beets have much better return factors.  Cellulose conversion is a distant hope for finding a new way to create ethanol.  Bio-diesel can provide less than 10% of US diesel needs.

Electrical energy from coal, nuclear, and renewables can not be converted into transportation fuel.  "Hydrogen is not a source of energy."  Energy must be used to create hydrogen, it takes up a lot of space, is hard to contain, weakens regular steel containers, and hydrogen is explosive.  A fuel cell is a battery utilizing hydrogen, but fuel cells also have multiple drawbacks.

Two thirds of US oil consumption is used for transportation fuels.  Not only is fuel economy dropping, but people are driving much more, especially from suburbs. "It's our life style, which, of course, our Vice-President [Cheney] has told us, 'is not up for negotiation'.  Well, we won't have to negotiate it.  Nature doesn't negotiate."

Richter points out that moving people from low fuel economy cars to mid fuel economy cars, while others move from mid fuel economy to high fuel economy, would cut in half gasoline demand, if usage held steady.  Policies are needed to increase the average fuel economy of the fleet. Hybrid engine automobiles greatly improve the economy with which vehicles use energy in the fuel by recovering energy that is wasted in regular vehicles.  One hundred mile per gallon vehicles are possible.  Fully electric vehicles are also viable, especially if charged by up with renewable, sustainable electricity sources.

One difficulty is that over 75% of US workers drive to work alone.  In contrast, four-fifths of New York's workers commute by mass transit.  Correctly matched buses and trains are the most efficient forms, next to walking and biking.  Choosing homes near work, stores, and schools greatly reduces individual transportation needs.

"At some point, the low wage worker can not afford to drive to work anymore...  We can't shut down the low wage section of the economy because of oil..."

"What are the economic effects of Peak Oil?  Higher inflation and higher unemployment... When you have rapidly escalating energy prices, you get stagflation."

"We have a lot of options here, to reduce our energy use, but the runway is short...  Peak Oil is imminent, and the declines will be sharp, and we will have to act quickly."

Tim Hudson, John Richter and Dominic Crea are founding members of the "Institute of Sustainable Energy Education" (ISEE) and known as the "Energy Myth Busters".  They have delivered talks on Peak Oil at venues including the GLREA Michigan Energy Fair, the Upland Hills Ecological Awareness Center, St. Clair County Community College, Cedar Creek Institute, and the Midwest Renewable Energy Association's Energy Fair.

Re-Energizing America: Rescuing America from its Costly Fossil Fuel Addiction

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"Learn about ways to alleviate America's addiction to oil and gas with renown author Daniel D. Chiras, PhD.  America is running out of oil and natural gas, two fossil fuels that satisfy nearly two-thirds of our current energy demand.  Will declining supplies and increasing demand result in our social and economic downfall?" -- 2006 Michigan Energy Fair Program Guide

Chiras talks about our addiction to oil and resultant problems including global warming, rising fuel costs, global war and conflict.  He talks about the un-viability of replacing oil with nuclear, and the minimum benefit of drilling in ANWR.  He notes that we're running out of cheap oil, and that global oil extraction from the earth is peaking.  He quotes Exxon-Mobil giving peak oil between 2005 and 2010.

"Peak oil means the end of cheap oil...We are going to be looking at a tremendous crunch with supply and demand...  Oil wells are running dry...  We haven't made a major oil discovery since the late 1960s...  We are pinning our hopes on a declining resource...  Natural gas and oil are both on decline...  We are not set up to import natural gas...  Bottom line is that we've got to get serious about this energy thing real soon..."

Chiras goes on to emphasis the importance of focusing on energy efficiency, conservation, solar, and wind.  "Conservation should be thought of as a new source of energy."  He focuses on efficiency in homes, business, and industry.  He emphasizes that there is plenty of capacity for renewable energy in the USA.  "Don't let anyone tell you its not possible."

Chiras focuses on the various methods of greatly improving efficiency of homes using fixes and retrofits from the minor to the major.  For home heating, he mentions passive solar retrofits, solar hot water, solar hot air, energy efficient wood stoves and ground source heat pumps. For home electricity, he mentions solar electric systems, wind energy systems, and micro-hydro systems.

For transportation, Chiras focuses on improving efficiency by driving slower, keeping tires inflated, combining trips, using mass transit, buying more efficient vehicles including those utilizing hybrids, electric powered, bio-diesel, and ethanol from biomass including corn and switch grass.  He points out that hydrogen is not a way to store energy. "We don't have supplies of hydrogen in the ground."  He emphasizes that, at the moment, it's about three times more efficient to take electricity to run an electric car than taking the extra step of using the electricity to charge up hydrogen fuel cells to run cars.

Finally, Chiras urges that movement towards sustainability and renewables must begin now, while we have the time and the energy to change.

Free Heat for Life: Learn the Fundamentals of Affordable Passive Solar Design

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"Learn how to tap into the sun's energy to heat your home, even in the colder regions of North America." -- 2006 Michigan Energy Fair Program Guide

Dan Chiras is an author of dozens of books including renewable energy and green building.  He is a passive solar design consultant and a teacher at Colorado college.  He lectures all around the country, and has lived in a renewable energy home for 30 years.

Copyright 2006 Local Future Network